PF Tracker — pftracker.smelabs.io

The Workflow

5 steps from discovery to decision

Find a stock by name or ticker (India or US)

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Screen

Napkin CAGR check — is it in the right ballpark?

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Valuate

Build Bear/Base/Bull model with macro-anchored growth rates

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Track

Add to tracker — monitor live CMP and CAGR together

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Result Update

Enter quarterly actuals, revise model, decide Hold/Add/Trim

CAGR Colour Key

The most important number in the tool

≥ 25%

Strong Buy Zone

Stock can 3× in ~5 years. This is the target. Add with conviction.

At 25% CAGR: ₹100 → ₹305 in 5 years · ₹931 in 10 years

15–24%

Hold / Watch

Decent return but not exceptional. Fine for existing positions. Cautious on fresh buys — wait for a dip to push CAGR above 25%.

At 18% CAGR: ₹100 → ₹229 in 5 years · ₹523 in 10 years

< 15%

Avoid / Trim

You're overpaying. Use the /entry skill to find the price at which CAGR hits 25%, then set a watchlist alert.

At 12% CAGR: ₹100 → ₹176 in 5 years — barely beats fixed deposits

The CAGR formula

CAGR = ( EPS × Target PE / CMP ) ^ (1 / years) − 1

Years = projected FY year minus current FY. CMP = current market price.

Building the Financial Model

What to enter and in what order

Step-by-step inputs

1
RevenueTop-line sales. Start from management guidance or last 3-year CAGR.
2
OPM %Operating profit margin. PAT auto-computes: Revenue × OPM × 0.75.
3
PATAuto-filled. Override if you know actual tax rate or expect one-offs.
4
EPSPAT ÷ shares outstanding. Check Screener for share count.
5
Target PEWhat PE will the market pay in that year? Anchor to sector + PE bias.

PAT auto-formula

PAT = Revenue × OPM% × 0.75

0.75 assumes 25% effective tax rate. Override PAT manually if actual tax differs.

How to choose Target PE

• Start with the stock's current trailing PE
• PE bias = compress → haircut 10–20%
• PE bias = expand → modest re-rating OK
• Sector leader commands premium to sector median
• PE shouldn't exceed 2× revenue growth rate (PEG < 2)

Scenarios

Bear — what if things go wrong? Use GDP beater min as revenue ceiling.

Base — most likely. Anchor to compounder min from macro bar.

Bull — best case. 1.5× Base revenue growth + PE re-rating.

Reading the Macro Bar

How each chip affects your growth and PE assumptions

Chip	Green	Amber	Red	What to do with your model
India / US GDP	≥ 6% / ≥ 3%	3–6% / 1–3%	< 3% / < 1%	Low GDP → only market-share gainers can compound. Raise bar for Base revenue CAGR.
CPI inflation	≤ 3%	3–6%	> 6%	High CPI = PE compresses + real CAGR erodes. Haircut Target PE by 10–20% in compress regime.
Nominal GDP	High	—	—	Revenue must grow > compounder min (2× nominal GDP) for 25%+ stock CAGR.
Compounder min	—	—	—	Use as the floor for Base revenue CAGR. If historical growth < this, lower conviction.
PE bias	expand	neutral	compress	expand → add 5–10% to Target PE. compress → deduct 10–20% from Target PE.
Yield curve (US)	> 0.5%	0–0.5%	< 0% (inverted)	Inverted = recession in 12–18 months. Use Bear as Base for US consumer stocks.
NFP (US jobs)	≥ 150k	0–150k	< 0	Weak jobs → US consumer slowdown. Cut revenue growth of US consumer/retail by 2–3%.
VIX	< 20	20–30	> 30	VIX > 30 = market panic = opportunity. CAGR rises as CMP falls — good entry point.
Brent crude	< $70	$70–100	> $100	High Brent → add 1–2% OPM compression for logistics/manufacturing/aviation.
10Y yield (US)	< 4%	4–5%	> 5%	High rates = expensive money = lower PE multiples globally, especially growth stocks.

The Verdict Rules

When to buy, hold, trim — no emotion

✓

ADD — Buy with conviction

·Base CAGR ≥ 25%
·Bear CAGR ≥ 15% (downside protected)
·Latest result is BEAT or IN-LINE
·Management maintained or raised guidance

HOLD — Stay patient

·Base CAGR 15–25%
·OR Base CAGR ≥ 25% but result was MISS
·Thesis intact — just price ran ahead
·Wait for dip or next quarter confirmation

↓

TRIM — Reduce position

·Base CAGR 10–15%
·OR result MISSED + guidance cut
·Macro turned negative for sector
·Better opportunity elsewhere in tracker

AVOID / EXIT

·Base CAGR < 10%
·Bull CAGR < 20%
·Structural thesis broken (not just one bad quarter)
·CMP > entry price for 20% CAGR

Macro → Model Quick Reference

Translate today's macro into your model inputs

If you see…	Then in your model…
India nominal GDP ~11%	Base revenue CAGR floor = 23% for a compounder (2× nominal)
CPI rising above 6%	Shave 10–20% off Target PE in Base and Bull scenarios
Yield curve inverted	Treat Bear as the Base; extend your timeline by 1 year
VIX > 30	CMP is depressed — recalculate CAGR; good entry. Don't panic sell.
Brent > $100	Add 1–2% OPM compression for transport/mfg/aviation companies
NFP negative (US)	Cut US consumer/retail revenue growth by 2–3% in Base
10Y yield > 5% (US)	Apply 10–15% PE discount to growth stocks; prefer value/dividend plays
PE bias = expand	Add 5–10% to Target PE. Re-rating possible. Bull scenario more credible.
Bear CAGR ≥ 15%	High conviction. Downside is protected. Size up the position.
Bull CAGR < 20%	Avoid even in best case. The stock is structurally overpriced.

Glossary

Quick definitions

Term	Definition
CMP	Current Market Price — the live traded price of the stock right now
EPS	Earnings Per Share = PAT ÷ total shares outstanding
OPM	Operating Profit Margin = operating profit ÷ revenue × 100
PAT	Profit After Tax — the bottom-line net profit of the company
PE	Price-to-Earnings ratio = CMP ÷ EPS. How much the market pays per ₹1 of earnings
CAGR	Compound Annual Growth Rate — the annualised return if you hold to the target price
NFP	Non-Farm Payrolls — number of US jobs added each month. Key indicator of consumer health
Yield curve	10Y Treasury yield minus 2Y yield. Negative (inverted) = recession risk in 12–18 months
Nominal GDP	Real GDP growth + CPI inflation. Represents the economy's actual size growth in money terms
PEG	PE ÷ revenue growth rate. PEG < 1.5 = reasonable valuation. PEG > 2 = expensive
Compounder	A business growing revenue at 2× nominal GDP — typically delivers 25%+ stock CAGR
VIX	Volatility Index — market fear gauge. Below 20 = calm. Above 30 = panic (often a buy signal)